Turkiyaning davlat qarzi

Turkiyaning davlat qarzi - bu Turkiya Respublikasi davlatining ma'lum bir sana yoki muddatda to'lanmagan to'g'ridan-to'g'ri, muddatli, shartnomaviy va moliyaviy majburiyatlarining butun zaxirasidir^{[note 1]}.

Ichki qarz

2017-yil oxirida Turkiyaning umumiy yalpi davlat qarzi taxminan 954 milliard Turk lirasini (221 milliard dollar) tashkil etdi, bu YaIpi Ichki Mahsulotning taxminan 30 foiziga teng^[1]^{[note 2]}. Turkiya Markaziy bankining sof aktivlari, davlat sektori depozitlari va ishsizlik sug'urtasi jamg'armalarining sof aktivlari chegirib tashlanganidan keyin, Turkiyaning umumiy sof davlat qarzi taxminan 262 mlrd. TL (taxminan 60 mlrd $)ga teng bo'lgan holda YaIMning 8 foizini ni tashkil qiladi^{[note 3]}.

Tashqi qarz

2017-yil dekabr oyi oxirida Turkiya davlatining xorijiy valyutalardagi yalpi qarzi 453,2 milliard dollarni (YaIMning qariyb 53 foizi), Turkiyaning sof tashqi qarzi esa 291,2 milliard dollarni (YaIMning qariyb 34 foizi) tashkil etgan edi. Turkiya g’aznachiligi tomonidan kafolatlangan kreditlar ayni vaqtda 13,8 milliard dollarnga yetdi^[1].

2018-yilning fevral oyida mamlakatning valyuta zaxiralari 114,5 milliard dollar ekvivalentini tashkil qildi^[2].

Xavotirlar

2018-yil aprel oyida Turkish Industry and Business Association raisi mamlakat "Este'mol va tashqi kreditlarga asoslangan iqtisodiy o'sish yo'lidan ketishi" kerakligini ta'kidlab, Turkiyaning tashqi qarzi "hozir yalpi ichki mahsulotning 53 foizidan oshib ketganini" eslatdi^[3].

Turkiya bosh vazir oʻrinbosari Mehmet Shimshek milliy valyutaning qadrsizlanishi iqtisodiyotni (koʻproq) raqobatbardosh qilib qoʻyganini va “turk lirasi uchun eng yomoni endi ortda qolganini” taʼkidladi^[4]. Tahlilchilar liraning AQSh dollari va yevroga nisbatan zaiflashishi hamda korporativ va xorijiy valyutadagi qarzlar miqdorining oshib borishi hisobiga “tizimli xavf” haqida ogohlantirgan edilar, bu esa “2009-yildan buyon ikki karra oshgan^[4]".

Moliyaviy bozorlar

2018-yil holatiga ko'ra Turkiyaning mahalliy valyutada savdo qiluvchi obligatsiyalar bozori rivojlanayotgan bozor mamlakatlari orasida 6-o'ringa chiqib oldi^[5]^{[note 4]}. 2009-yil oxirida esa Turkiyadagi korporativ obligatsiyalar bozori 481 million lirani (340 million AQSH dollari) tashkil etgan holda, 2010-yilga kelib 1,4 milliard turk lirasi (1,9 milliard AQSH dollari) ga, 2011-yil oxirida esa 4,3 milliard dollarga yetdi^[5]. Bir qator korporativ defolt va qayta tuzilishlar “investorlarning ishtahasini biroz pasaytirgan^[6]" bo'lsada, 2017-yilga kelib bozorning umumiy hajmi taxminan 18 milliard lirani (5 milliard 200 ming dollar) tashkil etdi.

201-yildan 2017-yilgacha chiqarilgan korporativ qarzlar bo‘yicha o‘rtacha kupon stavkasi qisqa muddatli depozitlar bo‘yicha 11,1 foiz va 2 yillik davlat obligatsiyalari bo‘yicha 10,4 foizga nisbatan 12,1 foizni tashkil etdi^[6].

Turkiyaning Eurobond bozori 2011-yilning boshida ochildi va banklar hamda korporativ shaxslarga obligatsiyalar boʻyicha foiz toʻlovlaridan ushlab qolindadigan soliqlarni toʻlamasdan, toʻgʻridan-toʻgʻri yevroobligatsiyalar chiqarishga ruxsat berildi^[5].

Eslatmalar

↑ Government debt includes domestic and foreign liabilities, such as currency and money deposits, securities other than shares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually the last day of the fiscal year. See: Central government debt, total (% of GDP) for Turkey, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
↑ The Turkish Treasury calculates Turkish Lira (TL) equivalents of debt stock amounts from original, foreign currencies on the basis of the selling rate at the relevant end of period. See: Debt Management Reports (Wayback Machine saytida 2018-12-28 sanasida arxivlangan), Treasury, p. 13
↑ Turkish 2017 GDP was TL3.1 tr ($722 bn). See: April 2018 Treasury Report.
↑ See also: Recent trends in Emerging Market Economies government debt volume and composition, Bank of International Settlements, 2017

Manbalar

↑ ^1,0 ^1,1 April 2018 Treasury Report (Wayback Machine saytida 2018-12-28 sanasida arxivlangan), Undersecretariat of Treasury, Turkey
↑ Official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
↑ „TÜSİAD warns of huge external debt“. Hürriyet (5-aprel 2018-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.
↑ ^4,0 ^4,1 Courcoulas, Constantine; Kandemir, Asli. „Turkey's Bill for Debt-Fueled Economic Growth Starts to Fall Due“. Bloomberg News (29-mart 2018-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.
↑ ^5,0 ^5,1 ^5,2 Turkey: bonds^{[sayt ishlamaydi]}, Cbonds
↑ ^6,0 ^6,1 Courcoulas, Constantine; Kandemir, Asli. „Turkey Corporate Bonds Need a Rescue Plan, Fund Manager Says“. Bloomberg News (24-avgust 2017-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.

Havolalar

Turkiya ma'lumotlar varag'i, OECD, 2017

[1] Government debt includes domestic and foreign liabilities, such as currency and money deposits, securities other than shares, and loans. It is the gross amount of government liabilities reduced by the amount of equity and financial derivatives held by the government. Because debt is a stock rather than a flow, it is measured as of a given date, usually the last day of the fiscal year. See: Central government debt, total (% of GDP) for Turkey, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

[3] The Turkish Treasury calculates Turkish Lira (TL) equivalents of debt stock amounts from original, foreign currencies on the basis of the selling rate at the relevant end of period. See: Debt Management Reports (Wayback Machine saytida 2018-12-28 sanasida arxivlangan), Treasury, p. 13

[4] Turkish 2017 GDP was TL3.1 tr ($722 bn). See: April 2018 Treasury Report.

[9] See also: Recent trends in Emerging Market Economies government debt volume and composition, Bank of International Settlements, 2017

[report-2] 1,0 ^1,1 April 2018 Treasury Report (Wayback Machine saytida 2018-12-28 sanasida arxivlangan), Undersecretariat of Treasury, Turkey

[5] Official reserve assets and other foreign currency assets, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

[6] „TÜSİAD warns of huge external debt“. Hürriyet (5-aprel 2018-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.

[bloom-7] 4,0 ^4,1 Courcoulas, Constantine; Kandemir, Asli. „Turkey's Bill for Debt-Fueled Economic Growth Starts to Fall Due“. Bloomberg News (29-mart 2018-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.

[cbonds-8] 5,0 ^5,1 ^5,2 Turkey: bonds^{[sayt ishlamaydi]}, Cbonds

[berg-10] 6,0 ^6,1 Courcoulas, Constantine; Kandemir, Asli. „Turkey Corporate Bonds Need a Rescue Plan, Fund Manager Says“. Bloomberg News (24-avgust 2017-yil). Qaraldi: 17-may 2018-yil.

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